09 Jul critical thinking- Inductive reasoning
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General Questions
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Assignment goal: Students should be able to : (1) analyze an inductive argument; and (2) Compare and contrast different types of inductive arguments.
Expectations:
A minimum of 200 words is required for question 1, and a minimum of 100 words for questions 2 – 4
Questions:
1. Suppose you were interested in whether the customers who buy heavy metal music from your store would like you to carry wall posters of the musicians. You can’t ask all the customers, but you can ask a few by taking a poll. You happen to know that about 60 percent of your customers who buy heavy metal music are male. You know that about 50 percent of the people in the world are female. If you were going to stratify your sample on sex, how should you do the stratification?
2. For the following statistical report, (a) identify the sample, (b) identify the population, and (c) discuss bias and the representativeness of the sample, mentioning sample size, stratification, and so on.
The State Hornet, the State University student newspaper, conducted a survey by asking students a series of questions. The survey was conducted at noon in front of the University Union and involved 450 students out of a student body of 26,000. The interviewers were careful to get a sample with a racial, sexual, and age breakdown similar to that of the university as a whole. In the survey, 70 percent of the students interviewed said they opposed mixing sexes on the same floor of the dormitories. The newspaper presented the results of its survey in an article headlined “Majority of Student Body Opposes Mixing Sexes on Same Floor of Dorms.”
Suppose that in response to this passage, Smith remarks, “There are several problems with this survey. For instance, the 70 is pseudoprecise, and just how do you tell from a distance what someone’s age is?” (d) Discuss this response.
3. (a) Explain a prediction or predictive argument. (b) Why arguments containing prediction are usually predictive. (c) Give an example of a predictive argument.
4. Dealing with inductive reasoning, compare and contrast arguments based on the appeal to a typical example and arguments based on signs.
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