16 Mar Initial Postings:?Your initial post should be bas
Initial Postings: Your initial post should be based upon the assigned reading for the week, so the textbook must be the primary source utilized and listed in your reference section (and properly cited within the body of the text. Other sources are not required but feel free to use them if they aid in your discussion. This means that they support the material from the textbook. Do not use other sources to substitute for or replace the textbook.
Provide a graduate-level response to each of the following questions:
- Define and provide one example each of a known known, known unknown, and unknown unknown you have encountered on previous projects. Which of the these would be addressed during planning phase? Which would be the basis for listing on a risk register? Why?
- To help identify risks, what are some questions a project manager could ask when reviewing the project charter and WBS? Why would these be the questions to ask?
Your post must be substantive and demonstrate insight gained from the course material. Postings must be in the student's own words – do not provide quotes!
Your initial post should be at least 500+ words and in APA format (written in full , using proper paragraph structure, sources cited within the body of the main text and Times New Roman with font size 12).
Submitting the Initial Posting: Your initial post should be completed by Thursday, 11:59 p.m. EST.
Response to Other Student Postings: Respond substantively (at least 100 words) to the post of at least two peers, by Friday, 11:59 p.m. EST. A peer response such as “I agree with her,” or “I liked what he said about that” or similar comments are not considered substantive and will not be counted for course credit. Also, just repeating information from the course material or your own initial post does not satisfy these criteria.
Continue the discussion through Sunday, 11:59 p.m. EST by highlighting differences between your postings and your colleagues' postings. Provide additional insights or alternative perspectives. This means an on-going conversation in addition to the two required responses above.
Evaluation of posts and responses: Your initial posts and peer responses will be evaluated on the basis of the kind of critical thinking and engagement displayed. The grading rubric evaluates the content based on four areas: Content Knowledge & Structure, Critical Thinking, Presentation & Writing Mechanics, and Response to Other Students
Discussion 11 (Analyzing)
This week we turn our attention to annotations. Annotation is a crucial component of good data visualization. It can turn a boring graphic into an interesting and insightful way to convey information. This week, please navigate to any site and find a graphic that could use some annotation work. Add the graphic and the website it is found as an attachment to this post and note what you would do to enhance the graphic and note why you would make these decisions.
In response to peers, add additional information to their posts noting what else could be done to enhance the graphic.
This should be a minimum of 300 words, checked with Grammarly, with at least one APA formatted reference.
CONTEMPORARY PROJECT MANAGEMENT, 4E
Timothy J. Kloppenborg
Vittal Anantatmula
Kathryn N. Wells
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‹#›
Project Risk Planning
Chapter 11
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‹#›
Chapter 11 Core Objectives:
Describe how to plan for risk management, identify risks, analyze risks, & create risk response plans for identified risks
Identify and classify risks for a project & populate a risk register
Describe various risk assessment techniques & when they are appropriate
Prioritize project risks, using appropriate assessment techniques
Compare & contrast strategies for dealing with risks
© 2019 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Chapter 11 Technical Objectives:
Select & utilize an appropriate quantitative risk analysis tool if qualitative risk analysis is not sufficient
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Chapter 11 Behavioral Objectives:
Determine an individual’s propensity to accept risk & use that to strategize about which risks to accept
Determine an organization’s propensity to accept risk & use that knowledge to strategize about which risks to accept
© 2019 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Texas Medical Center
Rhonda Wendler
Texas Medical Center News
“While project managers cannot prevent hurricanes, through careful risk planning, actions can be taken to greatly mitigate the impact.”
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6
Project Risk Planning
Approach to risk is same on any project:
Identify
Assess
Respond
Level of depth/energy expended on risk planning varies greatly among projects
Purpose of risk management is to reduce overall project risk to acceptable level (NOT to avoid risk entirely)
More detailed risk management in iteration planning, daily stand-up meetings, retrospectives
© 2019 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Plan Risk Management
Plan risk management – “the process of defining how to conduct risk management activities for a project.” ~Practice Standard for Project Risk Management (PMI)
A PM must understand success measures & priorities for a project in order to develop a risk management plan
Risk management plan decides details to approach, plan, & execute risk management activities
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Plan Risk Management
What constitutes project success?
Meeting various agreements (i.e., contracts)
Did project meet customers’ expectations?
Did project help the performing organization?
New technologies
Employee growth
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Specific Project Stakeholder Priorities
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Risk Management Planning & Stakeholder Priorities
Understand what the project plan calls for
Understand area the most important stakeholders like to improve
Understand where stakeholders are willing to sacrifice to enable improvements
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Understanding the Project Risk
threat – “a risk that will have a negative impact on the project objective if it occurs.” ~Practice Standard for Project Risk Management (PMI)
opportunity – “a risk that would have a positive effect on one or more project objectives.” ~Practice Standard for Project Risk Management (PMI)
project risk – anything that may impact the project team’s ability to achieve the general project success measures and the specific project stakeholders’ priorities
© 2019 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Plan Risk Management
Roles & Responsibilities
Categories & Definitions
Risk management plan– part of the project management plan that describes how risk management activities will be prioritized, monitored, planned & performed; also used for communicating with project stakeholders & for follow-up analysis
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Roles and Responsibilities
Encourage wide participation in risk management activities
More perspectives considered more risks uncovered
Participation encourages buy-in to a risk management approach
Identify who is responsible for each risk
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14
Categories and Definitions
More project risks generally uncovered early in the life of a project
The cost per risk discovered early is less
Risks discovered late in a project can be expensive
Categorizing risks often leads to more thorough risk identification. Classify by:
Stage of project lifecycle
Project objective that would be impacted
External vs. internal to project
What is known vs. unknown (uncertainty)
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Risks Over the Project Life Cycle
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Categories and Definitions
A “known known” can be planned and managed with certainty
“Known unknowns” can be identified and may or may not happen
“Unknown unknowns” are true uncertainties
Cement will harden
Bad weather will happen
100-year flood
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Breakout Session!
Identify project risks you have encountered or may encountered, in each of the following categories:
Known knowns
Known unknowns
Unknown unknowns
Unknown Unknowns, by their very definition, may be hard to brainstorm….bragging rights go to the team with the most interesting/unique unk-unk!
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International Construction Project Risk Factors
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Top Risks for International Projects
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Top Risks for Software Projects
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Identify Risks
Information gathering
Reviews
Understanding Relationships
Risk register
Identify risks – “the process of determining which risks might affect the project and documenting their characteristics.” ~Practice Standard for Project Risk Management (PMI)
© 2019 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Information Gathering
Brainstorming activity considering “what could go wrong”
Variations & extensions of possible risks can help to identify additional risks
Interview stakeholders
SWOT analysis, Delphi technique
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Information Gathering
SWOT analysis – detailed analysis of project’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, & threats
Delphi technique– an info gathering technique whose goal is to reach consensus among a group of experts; involves soliciting anonymous expert opinions, summarizing them, & sending them back to the experts for further comments and improvements
© 2019 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Structured Reviews
Reviewing documents developed for the project & for other uses helps i.d. risks
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Understanding Relationships
Use a flow chart to learn the cause-and-effect relationships of risk events
Consider why a certain risk event may happen through root cause analysis
Root cause analysis – an analytical technique to ascertain the fundamental or causal reason(s) that affect one or more variances, defects, or risks.
© 2019 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Understanding Relationships
Understand trigger conditions
A trigger may be specific to an individual risk
Trigger condition – “a circumstance under which a risk strategy or risk action will be invoked.”
~Practice Standard for Project Risk Management (PMI)
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Risk Register
Primary output of risk identification…see Exhibit 11.9 in text
The risk register is a living document
Risk register – “the document containing the results of the qualitative risk analysis, quantitative risk analysis, and risk response planning. It identifies all identified risks, including description, category, cause, probability of occurring, impact(s) on objectives, proposed responses, owners, and current status.” ~Practice Standard for Project Risk Management (PMI)
Risk categories
Identified risks
Potential causes
Potential responses
© 2019 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Breakout Session!
Begin compiling a risk register, similar to the example shown in Exhibit 11.9.
Remember that the risk register is a living document and will be added to/amended as the project proceeds.
© 2019 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Risk Analysis
Understanding enough about each risk to determine how fully & formally it will be handled
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Risk Register Updates
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Perform qualitative Risk Analysis
How likely is this risk to happen?
How big will the impact be?
Qualitative risk analysis performed on all projects
Perform qualitative risk analysis – “the process of prioritizing risks for further analysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact.”
~Practice Standard for Project Risk Management (PMI)
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Qualitative Risk Assessment
Differentiate between major & minor risks using probability, impact, & PM judgment…each major risk needs a contingency plan and single “owner”
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Qualitative Risk Analysis
Cause and effect relationships
One way to assess magnitude of effect is to understand cause
Part of root cause analysis
Change the effect by changing the underlying cause
Use a cause and effect diagram
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Why could methods be a cause?
Why could machines be a cause?
Cause and Effect Diagram
List the risk as the effect in a box at head of the fish
Name the big “bones”
Complete the smaller “bones”
Why could people be a cause?
Why could machines be a cause?
© 2019 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Cause and Effect Diagram
© 2019 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Bigger, riskier, more complex, more expensive projects quantitative structured techniques
Use to predict the probabilities
Quantitative risk analysis – “the process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives.”
~Practice Standard for Project Risk Management (PMI)
ON-TIME
ON-BUDGET
SCOPE
QUALITY
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Common Quantitative Risk Analysis Techniques
| Decision tree analysis | A graphic tool depicting alternative choices as branches, multiple options for each alternative, & evaluating potential outcomes in terms of uncertainty and monetary value |
| Expected monetary value (EVA) analysis | A statistical technique to calculate present value of future outcomes to choose the best alternative |
| Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) | “A step by step approach for identifying all possible failures in a design, a manufacturing or assembly process, or a product or service.” ~Practice Standard for Project Risk Management (PMI) |
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Common Quantitative Risk Analysis Techniques
| Sensitivity analysis | A quantitative what-if risk analysis technique that presents comparative analyses of various desirable outcomes with respect to a financial measure or uncertainty…can be used to determine which risks have the most impact on the project outcomes or goals. i.e. Tornado diagram |
| Simulation | A technique that mimics real situations using uncertainties and assessing their impact on project objectives. i.e. Monte Carlo |
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Criteria for Selecting a Quantitative Risk Technique Methodology
Use the explicit knowledge of project team members
Allow quick response
Help determine project cost & schedule contingency
Help foster clear communication
Easy to use & understand
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Risk Register Updates
Add probability of each risk occurring & its impact to the register
Document results of quantitative risk analysis in risk register
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Plan Risk Responses
Strategies for Responding to Risks
Risk Register Updates
Plan risk responses – “the process of developing options and actions to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to project objectives.” ~Practice Standard for Project Risk Management (PMI)
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Strategies for responding to risks
Many projects use multiple strategies depending on combo of risks faced
(p. 375 in textbook)
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Breakout Session!
Come up with at least one specific example of how to use each of the eight risk response strategies listed in Exhibit 11.12
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Risk Register Updates
Keep register updated with results from risk response planning
Include any changes to the project schedule, budget, resource assignments & communications plan
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Summary
All projects have some risks
Risk planning should use an appropriate level of detail to plan for major risks
Risk planning begins with an understanding of project success
Risk management plan is part of the overall project management plan
Risk identification includes gathering information on potential risks
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Summary
Identified risks are documented in a risk register
Identified risks are analyzed
Risk response planning involves determining response to each major risk
Risk response strategies include avoid, transfer, mitigate, accept, research, exploit, share, & enhance
© 2019 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Risk Management on a Satellite Development Project
Planning
Establish process for dealing with risk & change
Day-long clinic
Criteria for evaluating probabilities of occurrence
Compared methods to industry standards
Systematically working with the risks of the project allowed us to prepare responses to the risks if and when they occurred.
PM IN ACTION
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Risk Management on a Satellite Development Project
Execution
Integrated approach to identification, analysis, & response to risks
Using a risk management database tool to log each risk as a record in the database
PM IN ACTION
© 2019 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Risk Management Worksheet
PM IN ACTION
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Risk Management on a Satellite Development Project
Risk management reviews
Review logged risks, actions & impacts of risks
Review prioritized report of all project’s risks
Avenue to resolve high-priority risks of the project
Identification of potential risks for related projects
PM IN ACTION
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PMBOK Exams
As PM, your goal is to complete your project on time, on budget, at an agreed upon level of quality, & to the satisfaction of your client and other stakeholders. Risks are anything that could impede—or help—you in this goal.
Remember that, according to PMI, project risks can be negative or positive.
Strategies for dealing with negative risks, or threats, are as follow: avoid, transfer, mitigate, research, & accept.
Strategies for dealing with positive threats, or opportunities are the following: exploit, enhance, share, research, & accept.
In creating a risk management plan, the first step is to identify all possible risks.
While it may seem counterintuitive, you do not want to plan for all risks.
Only the risks that emerge as “major” based on probability of occurrence & potential impact are actively planned for.
All projects make use of qualitative planning, & larger projects often proceed to quantitative planning (if may help you to remember that the “l” in qualitative comes alphabetically before the “n” in quantitative). Be familiar with the most common quantitative assessments.
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Casa de Paz Development Project
Brainstorm all risks you can imagine for Casa de Paz.
Qualitatively assess risks to determine big ones.
Create response plans for big risks.
Which are so big, they threaten the entire project (showstoppers)?
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,
Analyzing and Visualizing Data
Chapter 8
Annotation
Annotation
Project Annotation
Helping viewers understand what the project is about and how to use it
Chart Annotation
Help viewer perceive the chart and optimize interpretations
Features of Annotation
Headings and Introductions
Inform users efficiently about the content
User Guides
Offer some level of instruction in the form of prompts
Reader Guides and Legends
Offer
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