20 Jun Carbon Footprint Exercise ?1) Go to https://www.carbonfootprint.com/calculator.aspx 2) Calculate your carbon footprint.? For each tab (Welcome, House, Flights,
Carbon Footprint Exercise
1) Go to https://www.carbonfootprint.com/calculator.aspx
2) Calculate your carbon footprint. For each tab (Welcome, House, Flights, etc.) fill in the information asked for.
3) If it doesn’t apply to you, skip that tab.
4) If you live in a dorm and your academic institution does not provide the information, you can use information from your parent’s bills and calculate your footprint making the assumption you still live there.
5) When you are done entering all your information, go to the results page. Take a screenshot of the results and paste it into your Word or pdf document.
6) Answer the following questions.
a) What is a carbon footprint?
b) What makes the greatest contribution to your CO2 emissions?
c) What are carbon offsets?
d) The goal of this assignment was for you to learn about all the potential contributions to the carbon cycle you are part of. What were your major take-home lessons from this exercise? If you are interested in making changes, what would they be? What types of changes do you think would require societal change (infrastructure, technology) before you could make a significant change?
12/13/17
1
What Determines Global Temperatures?
What determines the radiative budget of the planet?
• Solar radiation from sun • Lost radiation back to space
• Absorbed radiation retained by planet
Radiative Forcings A radiative forcing is a factor that changes the
balance between radiation coming into the atmosphere and radiation going out.
Radiative Forcings Radiative forcing is a factor that changed in
the balance between radiation coming into the atmosphere and radiation going out.
Positive forcings tend on average to warm the
surface of the earth
Radiative Forcings Radiative forcing is a factor that changed in
the balance between radiation coming into the atmosphere and radiation going out.
Positive forcings tend on average to warm the
surface of the earth
Negative forcings tend on average to cool the surface of the earth.
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Radiative forcings & feedbacks* • Positive
– Greenhouse gases – Tropospheric ozone – Solar radiation – Black carbon on snow (also aerosols) – Water vapor* – Albedo* – loss of sea ice and snow cover.
• Negative – Aerosols (clouds* and industrial aerosols) – Albedo – Landuse
Radiative forcings can change independent of global
temperatures
Feedbacks are “forcings” that change with temperature.
Greenhouse gases
How do we know increases in these gases increase global
temperatures?
Historical Correlation
Quantum Mechanics
O2 and N2 do not absorb and emit energy from photons with
wavelengths in the infrared range.
Greenhouse gases do and in all
directions.
Weather versus Climate?
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Weather vs. Climate • Weather
– Time scale: minutes to seasons – Spatial scale: local to regional
• Climate – Time scale: averaged of years and decades – Spatial scale: regional to global – Patterns of weather over long periods
• Hurricanes • Droughts • Precipitation • etc.
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Global Temperatures
How do we measure the earth’s temperature?
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Instrumental Record Thermometers and Satellites
16 1840’s to present 1978 to present
Instrumental Record • Weather stations around the world • Data collected by several different
research groups. – NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies
(GISS) – National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) national Climate data Center (NCDC)
– Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office (HADCRUT)
• They quality check the data and produce analyzed data sets. 17
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature study (BEST) • Richard Muller – physicist who was
skeptical of other groups work • Analyzed global data using a different
methodology and additional data • Found same patterns as other groups
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Satellites • Measure temperature indirectly by
irradiance and at different layers of atmosphere
• Two groups analyze data • Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) • University of Alabama, Huntsville (UAH) • Both groups show warming trend
– RSS, 0.162 oC per decade – UAH, 0.138 oC per decade – Instrumental 0.2 oC per decade 19
Proxy Record
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Temperature Proxies • Proxy
– something that reliably changes with temperature.
– Needs to be comparable to present measurements. Something that changed both before and and after the instrumental record.
• Types of Proxies – Isotopes in organisms and rocks – Isotopes in ice cores – Stratigraphic profiles of organisms – Tree ring data
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During the ice ages, how did global temperatures fluctuate?
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Pattern during ice ages • Changes from 4 oC to 7 oC • Change since last ice age of about 4 oC • Abrupt changes in Ice ages occur over
5000 to 10,000 years • Last 150 years 0.99 oC and predictions for
200 year period between 2 oC to 6 oC. • Causes of changes different
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Since the last ice age, how do global temperatures fluctuate?
The last 1,800 years
The last 1,000 years 1,800 year global pattern
• Warmer today than anytime in that period • Medieval Climate Anomaly (800 – 1200 AD) • Little Ice Age (1550 – 1850 AD)
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Pattern since industrial revolution
29 base period 1951-1980
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Why is the Arctic warming so fast?
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Arctic Warming
Arctic Warming 2 times global rate
Arctic Amplification • Sea ice acts as a reflector which cools the
Arctic. • As Arctic warms there is less sea ice on
average over the year. • Areas free of sea ice absorb heat instead
of reflect it. • This creates even more warming and
more ice melt. • Which results a positive feedback loop.
34
What about the oceans? Ocean versus land
Air above oceans versus ocean water
36
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38
Energy Budget Inflation
39
,
6/19/18
1
Biological Effects of Climate Change
Biological Effects of Climate Change
Biological Effects of Climate Change
1) Increased CO2.
2) Changes in Climate.
Biological Effects of Climate Change
1) Increased CO2.
a) Changes in ocean chemistry.
b) Impacts on plant growth.
6/19/18
2
Changes in ocean chemistry Ocean acidification
• Increase CO2 in atmosphere, it will increase in ocean water.
6
Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2008)
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS, updated
1.4 PgC y-1
+ 7.7 PgC y-1 3.0 PgC y-1
29%
4.1 PgC y-1
45%
26% 2.3 PgC y-1
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Ocean acidification
• Increase CO2 in atmosphere, it will increase in ocean water.
• CO2 in water changes to an acid which decreases the pH of the water.
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CO2 + H2O Carbonic Acid
pH scale
11
pH scale
12
Lower pH is more acidic.
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pH scale
13
Lower pH is more acidic. Higher pH is less acidic.
pH scale
14
pH uses a logarithmic scale.
pH 6 is 10x as acidic as pH 7.
Ocean acidification
• Increase CO2 in atmosphere, it will increase in ocean water.
• CO2 in water changes to an acid which decreases the pH of the water.
15 16
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Ocean acidification
• Increase CO2 in atmosphere, it will increase in ocean water.
• CO2 in water changes to an acid which decreases the pH of the water.
• As pH decreases this impacts organisms that build parts of their bodies with calcium carbonate.
17
CO2 + H2O Carbonic Acid
An increase in ocean acidity decreases carbonate
concentration.
Calcium + carbonate = Calcium carbonate
the principle ingredient in the bodies calcareous animals.
An increase in ocean acidity decreases carbonate
concentration.
This makes it harder for calcareous animals to form and maintain body part made with
calcium carbonate.
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Calcareous Organisms
Foraminifera
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Mollusks – Clams, snail, and their kin
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Coral
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25
Coral Structure
Calcium
Carbonate
27
Calcareous algae
28
Echinoderms
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Crustaceans
Since 1850’s
30% increase in ocean acidity.
100x faster change then last 20 million years.
Change in ocean pH
By 2100 a 0.3 to 0.5 decline in pH
300% in acidity
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33
Does it have an affect?
Does it have an affect? • Lab experiments show impacts on calcareous
animal growth, immune response, and reproduction.
36
6/19/18
10
37
Does it have an affect? • Lab experiments show impacts on calcareous
animal growth, immune response, and reproduction.
• Lab experiments show shell and coral deterioration at lowered pH.
39 40
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Does it have an affect? • Lab experiments show impacts on calcareous
animal growth, immune response, and reproduction.
• Lab experiments show shell and coral deterioration at lowered pH.
• Areas of ocean that naturally have lower pH, have fewer organisms that have structures made of calcium carbonate.
42
Does it have an affect? • Lab experiments show impacts on calcareous
animal growth, immune response, and reproduction.
• Lab experiments show shell and coral deterioration at lowered pH.
• Areas of ocean that naturally have lower pH, have fewer organisms that have structures made of calcium carbonate.
• Parts of the ocean that have acidified the most have shown shifts in the composition of plankton species.
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Krill
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45
Krill
Salps
Does it have an affect? • Lab experiments show impacts on calcareous
animal growth, immune response, and reproduction.
• Lab experiments show shell and coral deterioration at lowered pH.
• Areas of ocean that naturally have lower pH, have fewer organisms that have structures made of calcium carbonate.
• Parts of the ocean that have acidified the most have shown shifts in the composition of plankton species.
• Reefs where pH has declined have exhibited coral thinning.
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Monaco Declaration • Ocean acidification is underway and
already detectable.
6/19/18
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Monaco Declaration • Ocean acidification is underway and
already detectable. • It is accelerating and serious damage is
imminent.
Monaco Declaration • Ocean acidification is underway and
already detectable. • It is accelerating and serious damage is
imminent. • It will have socioeconomic impacts.
Monaco Declaration • Ocean acidification is underway and
already detectable. • It is accelerating and serious damage is
imminent. • It will have socioeconomic impacts. • It is rapid, but recovery is slow.
Monaco Declaration • Ocean acidification is underway and
already detectable. • It is accelerating and serious damage is
imminent. • It will have socioeconomic impacts. • It is rapid, but recovery is slow. • Only way to control it is by limiting future
atmospheric CO2 levels.
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CO2 concentration effects on plants CO2 concentration effects
on plants. • In many species a higher concentration of
CO2 increases the growth rate. – These controlled lab studies usually control for
climate change impacts of CO2 on plant growth.
– As anthropogenic climate change progresses, extreme weather events are becoming more common and intense. These impacts could negate gains in growth rates in the field.
CO2 concentration effects on plants.
• In many species a higher concentration of CO2 increases the growth rate.
• Some species may use less water.
CO2 concentration effects on plants.
• In many species a higher concentration of CO2 increases the growth rate.
• Some species may use less water. • In many ecosystems this increase is
moderated by other limiting resources.
6/19/18
15
CO2 concentration effects on plants.
• In many species a higher concentration of CO2 increases the growth rate.
• Some species may use less water. • In many ecosystems this increase is
moderated by other limiting resources. • Many species of plants will exhibit an
increase in the ratio of carbohydrates to proteins in their cells. – Implications for both human and wildlife
nutrition & may impact population dynamics.
,
6/19/18
1
Biological effects of climate change An Organism’s Climate
Envelope
Temperature Precipitation Seasonality
An Organism’s Climate Envelope
Temperature Precipitation Seasonality
A warming climate effects all three.
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6/19/18
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How will North American plants respond?
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Increasing temperatures can make an area either less or more suitable for a
given species.
Pika
6/19/18
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Talus slopes – Rocky Mtns.
17
Pika
Above 78oF severe
physiological stress.
• 15% of historic populations extinct. • With only modest action – 75% gone by 2070. • Aggressive action – 51%.
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Increasing temperatures can make an area either less or more suitable for a
given species.
6/19/18
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Pine Beetle
22
Temperature vs. Survival
Responses to physiological stress
• Stay in place. – Local or global extinction. – Acclimation. – Adaptation.
• Move. – Dispersal.
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Extinction
67 percent (dozens) of Harlequin Frog species extinct.
Chytrid fungus increase with temperature.
White Lemuroid Opossum
Australia
4hrs > 86F
fatal
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Thomas et al. Study
• Estimate species climate envelope. • Assume that species climate envelope will not
evolve significantly in 50 years. • Model with and without species based
dispersal. • Model three climate scenarios. • Range of extinction values from 18% to 35%. • Other studies predict up to 75% biodiversity
loss.
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Acclimation
European Black Cap
Over-wintering in England.
Behavioral Acclimatization or Evolutionary Adaptation?
Examples of Successful Adaptations.
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Red Squirrel
Over 10 years female squirrels now give birth on average 18 days earlier in the year than their great-grandmothers.
15% due to genetic change.
Bog Mosquito Adaptation
Mosquito Adaptation Holzapfel & Bradshaw
• 30 year New England Study. • Winter temperature up 4.4oF in 30 years. • Hibernation Timing.
– Come out too early use resources needed to survive.
– Go into too late freezes to death. • Hibernating 7.4 days later. • Showed evolutionary response in lab to
changed temperatures.
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Which species are most likely to adapt?
Which species are most likely to adapt?
Those with short generation times – 2 years or less.
Dispersal
Dispersal
• Dispersal Rate. • Presence of dispersal agent. • Availability of Suitable habitat.
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Different species move at different rates.
This can disrupt ecological interactions and have a ripple effect through a
community.
Synchronous vs. Asynchronous Dispersal.
Synchronous Dispersal Synchronous Dispersal
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Asynchronous Dispersal Asynchronous Dispersal
Latitudinal Range Shifts
North American and British
Birds Northward
Shift.
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Latitudinal Shifts
• Majority of North American birds have shifted ranges to the north in last 30 years. 2.35 kilometers/year.
• Majority of British Birds have shifted ranges to north.
• Wide geographic distribution of patterns implicates climate change.
Elevational Range Shifts
Dominant plant species along an elevation gradient shifted synchronously with one another over a 30-year span that had a concurrent temperature increase, based on
a new study by Kelly and Goulden (13)
Breshears D. D. et.al. PNAS 2008;105:11591-11592
© 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA
Habitat Loss
6/19/18
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Biodiversity on Mountain Tops Biodiversity on Mountain Tops
Biodiversity on Mountain Tops Biodiversity on Mountain Tops
6/19/18
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The Hawaiian ‘I‘iwi
57
White-tailed ptarmigan 58
Bicknell’s Thrush
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Polar Bears and
Habitat Loss.
Arctic Warming
Arctic Sea Ice Habitat
• Bears use sea ice for feeding.
• Bears use sea ice for feeding.
• Sea ice is declining.
Arctic Sea Ice Habitat
6/19/18
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• Bears use sea ice for feeding.
• Sea ice is declining. • Cubs survival.
decreasing and adult condition decreasing.
Arctic Sea Ice Habitat
• Bears use sea ice for feeding
• Sea ice is declining • Cubs survival
decreasing and adult condition decreasing
• Polar bear populations are declining where sea- ice thinning
Arctic Sea Ice Habitat Life Cycle Timing Cues
• Temperature. • Light/Dark Daily Cycle.
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Life Cycle Timing.
Cycles of Activity and Dormancy.
False spring and early bud burst.
Life Cycle Timing
Dispersal and Migration
American Woodcock
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Life Cycle Timing
Reproduction
Egg Laying Dates
• Migrate earlier. • Lay eggs earlier. • Response of Insect Prey. • Prey availability and reproductive timing may
be out of sync. • Birds can respond by:
– No response and population decline. – Acclimate and learn to breed in sync. – Population evolves to breed in sync.
Great Tits Prey and reproductive timing
• Dutch Birds became out of sync with prey over 32 years.
• British birds and caterpillars changes dates in synchrony over 47 years.
6/19/18
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MA Wildflower Blooming
Dates
Concord, Ma Temperature Change
Spring
Yearly
Temperature and flowering date.
Kyoto Japan Cherry Blossoms
6/19/18
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Global declines of caribou.
34 of 43 declining.
Average decline 57%.
6/19/18
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Stressors on Caribou and Reindeer populations
• Habitat fragmentation. • Habitat fragmentation. • Arctic Warming.
– Increase in extreme weather events. • Freezing rain.
Stressors on Caribou and Reindeer populations
• Habitat fragmentation. • Arctic Warming.
– Increase in extreme weather events. • Freezing rain.
– Phenology mismatch. • Birth of young and vegetation peak out of synchrony
Stressors on Caribou and Reindeer populations
6/19/18
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The big picture
N
N
Solutions to climate change conservation impacts
• Mitigation. – Decrease atmospheric inputs of CO2. – Geoengineering.
• Adaptation. – Conventional conservation approaches. – Migration corridors. – Assisted migration.
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